Foldable phone shipments in India to grow 20-30% in 2023

Foldable phone shipments are likely to see a rise of around 20-30% in India next year. This comes after 2022 saw a growth pace of above 50%, both globally and in India. According to market research firm Counterpoint’s annual report, titled ‘Global Foldable Smartphone Market Forecast, Q3 2022’, FY23 is likely to close at a 52% annual growth, with 22.7 million foldable phones shipped globally. However, foldable smartphone shipments in India — despite growing in line with the global pace of growth of shipments — remain a very small part of the overall pie.

Industry officials with knowledge of the matter said that around 400,000 foldable smartphones have been shipped in India in CY22. “Even though foldable phone shipments should grow between 20-30% next year, they remain small in overall numbers — accounting for just over 2% of all phone shipments priced above ₹30,000 in India, as of the December quarter,” a senior industry official told Mint.

According to Prachir Singh, senior research analyst at Counterpoint, the ‘premium’ smartphone market of India, priced above ₹30,000, accounted for “between 10-11% of the overall market” as of the September quarter. According to Counterpoint’s quarterly data, 45 million smartphones were shipped in India during the period.

Speaking to Mint, Singh said that the market share of foldable phones is unlikely to drastically change next year, given its small installed user base in the country. “India’s average selling price (ASP) for smartphones is still at around $245 (approx. ₹20,300), while foldable phones are priced at a lofty niche — even among the niche premium smartphone buyers in India,” he said.

Globally, foldable phones captured a double-digit market share in the ultra-premium price segment (above $1,000) globally for the very first time this year, said Tarun Pathak, director, global smartphone practice at Counterpoint. “We expect it to rise above 20% globally in 2023,” Pathak added.

Counterpoint’s report noted that while Samsung will continue to lead the foldable phones market next year, China-headquartered brands such as Honor, Motorola, Xiaomi, Huawei, Oppo and Vivo are likely to contribute to increasing competition and falling prices through next year.

However, despite this growth in foldable smartphone shipments, the overall smartphone market has remained muted — and marked 2022 as a year of multiple sequential shipment declines.

The September quarter, typically seen as the strongest shipment quarter for smartphone vendors in India, witnessed a “first ever” annual shipment decline this year with an 11% dip. Industry experts noted issues such as higher-than-ever-before inventories of up to 10 weeks, coupled with falling customer demand amid inflationary concerns, were behind the decline of smartphone shipments in India.

Even amid this decline, the premium market saw a surge in shipments — driven by festive season deals in devices of brands such as Apple, Samsung and OnePlus. According to Counterpoint’s November 4 report on the September quarter, the premium segment reached its highest-ever market share in India with 12% — a quarter when Apple’s iPhone 13 became the most shipped smartphone in India.